Blog 2 – October 2023: Where to start?

As I sit here scrolling through Coingecko, it’s pretty easy to get lost. Today (25th October 2023) seems to be a green day. We’ve had the false tweet late last week by Cointelegraph that the Blackrock Bitcoin spot ETF was approved, and since then it’s been quite euphoric. The God candle after this fake news tweet pushed Bitcoin back above 30k, and at the time of writing its actually $34.5k. I think it showed there is a load of dry powder on the sidelines waiting for better news. So with sentiment all but changing overnight, it seems as good a time as any to start deploying capital.

Criteria

This will change as we progress. But as of now, and from a very simplistic point of view, I’d like to target the following:

  1. A token that has utility or need for that token. Money coming in, organic growth occurring, revenue and profit. A reason for buy side demand for the token. A reason for it to go up….
  2. Do people actually use the platform or token? Is there evidence use is growing?
  3. Most of the circulating supply is already out there (i.e. no large imminent unlocks that are coming to dump on you). The Market Cap shouldn’t be a 10th of the fully diluted valuation….
  4. An active community with developments in progress and future milestones that are positive.
  5. Finally, and probably most importantly, a narrative that I can step back agree with.

Things that immediately jump to mind are decentralised exchange tokens where fees generated are redistributed back to holders or burnt, or tokens where buy pressure comes from stakers to generate a yield. Tokens that are backed by growth, revenue and money coming in from said protocol or exchange.  As we progress, I plan to do a deep dive on the top 300 and expand. Of course, those larger gains are likely to come from those outside the top 100, certainly top 20, and so that is where I will start.

The First Pick

Rollbit – RLB.

Rollbit is a custodial gambling platform offering various casino games and sports betting services. In addition, Rollbit offers crypto futures derivative trading where users can open trading positions with up to 1,000x leverage. Among other things, the token offers access to the revenue stream. And as we know, the house always wins.

The Numbers

As I sit here and write this, Rollbit has taken in an impressive $1.5m in revenue over the past 24 hours of operation. Below is a snapshot of their dashboard as at 25th October 2023.

What’s most impressive is that this figure is trending upwards, and that a significant portion is being used to buy back and burn tokens. 10% of the $1.081m of casino revenue, 30% of the $389k crypto futures revenue, and 20% of the $133k sports betting revenue is buying and burning RLB. Buy side pressure, that comes from fees being generated organically by the platform.

The Market Cap ($0.194679 x 3,112,849,642 RLB in circulation) is currently $606m. In relation to earnings of approximately $1-1.5m per day (and growing), if we make the assumption these are annualised we have a price to earnings ratios of between 1.1 to 1.7. If we do swing into a full bull market, and the price was to remain static with volume increasing, we would be eying off a potential p/e ratio sub-1. To someone with a very rough idea of how traditional stock market valuations work, this appears to be good ‘value’.

Conclusion

Finally, it seems quite apt that the first token added in this risky venture is one that is a gambling related token. From a narrative, you just need to walk down a Highstreet to see the parade of gambling shops, or watch any game of sport to see gambling advertisements plastered everywhere.

Gambling has been around since the dawn of time – before written history – and some place it about 3000 BC… Crypto is full of Degen gamblers. We are all here trying to make a quick buck. Rollbit is established, has significant market share in the crypto space, and a website that works well. If markets improve, which I think they will, I think its highly likely that the impressive turnover only increases. Buy pressure increases, and we should be on our way. That is of course, all dependent on the numbers on their dashboard for turnover being accurate and reliable. That is the gamble.


Disclaimer

It goes without saying nothing on this site or anything associated with Happy Crypto Wanderer is or should be taken as financial advice. This site tracks the hopeful journey of one everyday punter just trying to live out a dream. Come back here every month so you can track the journey. Any and all feedback is much appreciated. If you feel so strongly that you’d like me to stop at any time, a large enough donation to this wallet so I can reach my goal could make all this disappear.

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