Blog 11 – January 2024 – Lessons Learned & Portfolio Update

December was the first month I properly strayed from my criteria, and it was the first month my profit and portfolio value (net of deposits) went backwards. Most upsetting was the fact that this was in a month that was largely green across the board.

What went wrong?

In an attempt to learn and improve, I’ve summarised a few thoughts:

  • I became overly confident. Everything I had touched til November had done well. I came in with a $1,900 profit (30% return) in 2 months.
  • The first part of December was largely dedicated to airdrop farming.
  • Airdrop farming I’ve found, can be boring and tedious. I’m all for staking to a chain to satisfy criteria, but when its creating a fake network presence by building volume and spending a load of gas on pointless transactions, I really cannot think of anything worse.
  • Linea voyage for example, which I completed most of although missed the beginning; you are asked to go and add liquidity to a random pool, just to remove it again immediately after getting a green tick. All while spending a load of gas. Then you swap between tokens and swap them straight back to build fake volume. Its all a bit fake.
  • I say this though as someone who is yet to benefit from an airdrop, and yes in time my view may change. But as a new stater, I find it mundane, laborious and flawed in the fact that the large majority are just working out ways to farm these protocols for the cheapest possible way, with the sole intention of dumping the airdrop as soon as its allocated. How is this building a strong community?
  • I think what I would rather is; tell me to lock up x amount of x for 2 years to be eligible for x number of airdrops. I guess this is what the lucky few have done with Atom over the past couple of years, and maybe this will be Tia moving forward.
  • Anyway it was through the endless airdrop research on twitter that I came across a reply that mentioned $Farmbot. The idea of a bot that has a ‘do it for me’ button. Of course, it all made sense. Adding liquidity, removing it, lending it, removing it, swapping it back and forth….. its all the mind numbing work that a bot should be able to take care of.
  • Having been sold the dream I bought in. I sat watching the chart move around at $0.004 for a couple of days, and then an announcement was made. We are making a Sol airdrop bot with the ‘do it form me’ option. The price shot up and I FOMO in at a price of c$0.007 for 0.3 eth, so i could get 100k tokens which were required to use the bot….
  • Fast forward a month, the sol do it for me is still not live (although we are assured the devs are still busy working on it), people have long forgotten about the sol airdrops and all focus of CryptoTwitter has moved to TIA and INJ airdrop farming among others, the token has tanked to $0.0008716 at time of writing, almost a tenth of the initial purchase and the investment can only be considered as gone…
  • The thing with airdrops is you need to act quickly. Snapshot dates are important. You can’t lose 2 months creating something whilst others are doing it manually. I give it a 1/1000 shot at getting money back – if we can get some marketing going after a new airdrop goes viral – maybe. Albeit the team currently consists of devs with great ideas who appear to have very little idea how to effectively market. The buzz of the project appears to have died before it started.
  • The next mistake was spending far too much time on my IRL job and getting COVID. Real world jobs are time consuming, and in my case unrewarding. For December it certainly cut into research time and forced me to speed up my decision making process. I cut corners and the portfolio suffered as a result.
  • While watching my $Farmbot investment disappear by the day, it was impossible to miss all of the Solana mania. Solana Memecoins pumping, Raoul Pal coming out and saying he’s up 650%+ on sol, told us all it was the easiest play he’s seen etc (I remember seeing the video way back sub $20 when he was bullish), among every other person on CryptoTwitter saying they told you so, and I have a serious case of FOMO again. Why didn’t i just buy 10 sol instead of farmbot. That would have been the easy play. The correct play.
  • So whilst ruminating on that, the next move is what they call in the classics, chasing losses….
  • I needed a way to make a quick 10 sol. Recoup the losses from $Farmbot and get back the sol it should have been.
  • In enters $Brett on my twitter feed. Brett is Pepe’s friend and part of the Boys club created by Matt Furie. Its simple, ETH has Pepe, AVAX has Landwolf and SOL has Brett. Anyway I bought in just over 1 sol at a market cap (MC) of $1.4m. Went to sleep, woke up and the devs had sold all their bag, abandoned project and the MC dropped to 200k and the telegram was in hysterics. Fantastic. Another one I can put down to ‘better for the experience’.
  • A few days go by and the MC starts to show signs of improvement and we have a community takeover on our hands. It worked with WIF, so their was life in $Brett once again. So I put in another 1.2 sol at a MC of about $390k. This moved the total amount to 300k tokens.
  • Fast forward a few more days, everyone in the $Brett telegram were talking about the Sol trending. I did the worst thing possible and joined this telegram group. There seemed to be 10 new memecoins listed every 6 hours. I watched Analos (Solana backwards…which I thought was ridiculous…) go from a few million MC to c$25m MC. I watched another couple, $Block, and who could forget the gently used Honda make similar gains. A heap of others starting at say a $100k-$200k market cap that would go to $2m MC before being rugged or just losing all volume and momentum. It was a casino.
  • In enters Cabal. A cult like Solana memecoin which was everywhere on my feed, and a really active telegram after only 12 hours. I couldn’t keep up with the buys on the feed. So my most FOMO degenerate play to date. I add in an extra $250 over and above the $500 for the month. I convert it straight to sol – and buy 2.2 sol worth at a MC of $1.2m. This is late at night. So I watch it for an hour or two – it keeps going up and I fall asleep at $1.5m. Brilliant, I’m on to the next Analos or Block….! Farmbot made back and i have that 10 sol i’ve been looking for.
  • Of course, this did not happen. When i wake up 6 hours later, the MC is at $1m – it had gone up all the way to $2.5m while i was sleeping. So I leave it. It is consolidating and will go back up.
  • Next thing you know, beeple tweets about the cabal along with one of his daily digital art references – cock related like usual – See December 28th. And since this piss take, the cabal has been on a downward trajectory – $75k MC at time of writing. Money gone. At least a rugpull wouldn’t have taken so long.

Takeaways

  • Transaction/volume based airdrop strategies is not something I enjoy, so will be reluctant to pursue moving forward.
  • The money and time spent on Linea/Farmbot would probably have been better invested in something straight forward like Manta New Paradigm earlier (I eventually made a late investment this month – blog to come – although maybe a month too late).
  • Or maybe I should have just bought and staked Injective or Celestia (the latter of which I have also done this month – again too late as I’ve missed the snapshot date for DYM).
  • Don’t chase losses. Self explanatory but a risky bet on farmbot led to 2 x riskier plays.
  • Don’t chase memecoins, but if you do, take out the original stake when you have a chance and play with the rest (ie do not sleep on cabal). I believe that the professional shit coin investors refer to this as a moonbag. ie original stake out – anything remains is profit. I have done this with $Brett – sold half of the holding for 2 sol. So now I can watch it go to zero and be less emotionally impacted…Or it does what it says on the tin and becomes the Pepe of Solana.
  • Do not FOMO in. If I have that feeling next time, put in a %, wait another 24 hours and follow it up with the remaining investment etc.
  • Try not to get off track. Ever since Farmbot its been a one way road in the opposite direction of the original strategy.
  • Finally, think long term and big picture. Things are not going to happen overnight. But If I can be consistent and sensible, with time and the flow of retail money into the space, It will be really hard not to do well.

So that’s the month of December. Some absolute howlers, but valuable lessons nonetheless. The spotlight moves onto January to ensure this can be a productive month. If you’ve made it this far, please drop you sol wallet address under this post in the comments and I will send you something for your support.

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